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Carlos Alcaraz v Matteo Arnaldi Betting Tips [4 September 2023]

Tennis - ATP US Open

4 September 2023 13:35

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The match

Matteo Arnaldi has the biggest match of his career as he faces Carlos Alcaraz in the US Open. This is a last 16 match with the winner taking on either 12th seed Alexander Zverev or sixth seeded Jannik Sinner in the last eight. It's been a breakthrough tournament for the world number 61. That's a career high but he's smashed that this week and has risen to 47th in the live rankings. The 22-year-old also had a poor record in Grand Slam events. His best was getting to round two at Roland Garros this year. Before this tournament began, Arnaldi had never even played in the main draw of the US Open. His best form is on clay with the highlight of his hard court year being a Challenger Tour title. So far in this tournament his wins have included a five set victory over Arthur Fils and knocking out 16th seeded Cameron Norrie in straight sets. Needless to say this is much tougher.

Carlos Alcaraz is the defending champion and was the world number one at the start of this final Grand Slam of the year. He'll be deposed by Novak Djokovic at the end of this tournament even if he retains his title. Alcaraz has won 56 of his 62 matches this year and 19 out of 22 on hard courts. He's only won one hard court title this year but that was a Masters 1000 event at Indian Wells. His preparation for his US Open title defence wasn't good by his standards with losses to Tommy Paul and Novak Djokovic. Alcaraz has only dropped one set on his way to this fourth round. We go for over 26.5 games to be played in this match, which obviously we believe Alcaraz will win.

Key Statistics

  • Two of the matches played by Alcaraz in this tournament have had over 26.5 games played in them.
  • The same stat applies to Matteo Arnaldi.
  • There have been over 26.5 games played in all but one of the last seven matches Alcaraz has played in the US Open.
  • Four of the last five Arnaldi Grand Slam matches have had over 26.5 games played.

The bet of our experts

Carlos Alcaraz can make it into the US Open quarter finals. Only one set has been dropped by the defending champion and this should be a straightforward win for the Spaniard. Arnaldi has done well to get this far but has a poor Grand Slam record and is better on clay. We go for over 26.5 games to be played in this match.
Created on 03/09/2023 at 21:09
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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