World number 15 Alex de Minaur will take on 23rd-ranked Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the semi-final of the ATP Toronto Open on Saturday. The winner of this match will face either Tommy Paul or Jannik Sinner in the final tomorrow. These two have met three times at the tour level, and de Minaur leads the head-to-head standings 2-1 and 3-1 at all levels. The Australian comes into this match off the back of an impressive straight-set win over world number three Daniil Medvedev in the last round. That followed wins over Taylor Fritz, Gabriel Diallo, and Cameron Norrie in the preceding rounds. De Minaur has been in excellent form of late, making the final at Los Cabos before this tournament and just missing out on the title at the Queen’s Club in June. He is now 31-16 and 18-6 on the hard court, which is a favoured surface of his. With three final appearances in total this year and a seventh ATP title in Acapulco, de Minaur is the current favourite according to most bookmakers.
Meanwhile, Davidovich Fokina will be hoping to make his first Masters final of the season here in Toronto. The Spaniard overcame Mackenzie McDonald in the last round in straight sets, but his biggest win of the tournament, and possibly for the season, came in the round of 16, where he got past Casper Ruud in a gruelling three-set encounter. He now faces a third opponent ranked higher than himself, having beaten Alexander Zverev in round two. Those wins have seen him improve his live ranking from 36th at the start of the tournament to inside the top 25 at present. The Spaniard is now 26-19 for the season and 14-6 on the hard court, which has never been his favourite surface. Davidovich Fokina has failed to beat this opponent in their last three encounters at any level, though having sent a few big names packing already, he cannot be ruled out of this one just yet.
Both players have sent a few notable opponents home in this tournament and will be very confident coming into the match. However, the Australian has looked extremely impressive over the past few months and has gotten the better of this opponent in their last three encounters. It should be a high-quality match, but we fancy de Minaur to reach a second successive ATP final here. Our Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Alex de Minaur prediction: Alex de Minaur to win the match.