Top 14 Betting Tips

#	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Lyon Ou	1	1	0	+25	5
2	Stade Francais Paris	1	1	0	+23	5
3	Stade Toulousain	1	1	0	+10	4
4	RC Toulonnais	1	1	0	+10	4
5	Aviron Bayonne	1	1	0	+7	4
6	Union Bordeaux Begles	1	1	0	+5	4
7	Section Paloise	1	1	0	+2	4
8	Castres Olympique	1	0	1	-2	1
9	Stade Rochelais	1	0	1	-5	1
10	USA Perpignan	1	0	1	-7	0
11	Clermont	1	0	1	-10	0
12	Montpellier Herault Rugby	1	0	1	-10	0
13	US Montalbanaise	1	0	1	-23	0
14	Racing 92	1	0	1	-25	0

Top 14 prediction

At Wincomparator, we've been predicting the Top 14 since 2008. Now, in 2025, we're bringing you our intelligent predictions, the result of years of research. Our special algorithm enables us to make reliable Top 14 predictions.

Our predictions are based on thousands of pieces of data
AI helps us to process the data
The odds on the Top 14 are taken into account in the calculation
Our experts validate all the Top 14 predictions generated by our tool

We are currently able to calculate the most likely result to be expected from a Top 14 match.

Winner prediction: who do we expect to win the Top 14?

Last season, at the end of the 2024-2025 campaign, Stade Toulousain lifted the Brennus Shield after a tremendous season and a final that ended in a narrow victory for Toulouse (39-33, a.e.t. against Bordeaux-Bègles).

And this year, the three-time defending champions are once again the bookmakers' favourites for the 2025-2026 Top 14 season. Based on the data, we also believe that the reigning champions have what it takes to retain their status and go for a fourth consecutive title, adding another feather to their cap.

Our prediction: Toulouse to win the Top 14.

Who will win the Top 14? The odds of the favourite for the title

Toulouse - 2.20
Bordeaux - 2.62
La Rochelle - 7.00
Toulon - 12.00
Racing 92 - 17.00
Clermont - 34.00
Lyon - 34.00
Montpellier - 51.00

These odds are taken from the Bet365 betting site. It is clear that the two finalists from last year, Toulouse and Bordeaux, are likely to battle it out for the title again this year, with La Rochelle lying in wait. To take advantage of these odds, visit Bet365.com!

Bet on the Top 14

The impact of Top 14 statistics on your predictions

In rugby, as elsewhere, statistics are of paramount importance when it comes to sports betting. Too often underestimated, statistics are nevertheless crucial to making successful predictions on the Top 14. They depend on multiple factors (team form, squad strength, head-to-head records, home advantage, fixture list, etc.) and clearly influence betting choices.

For example, one might think that handicap bets are complicated to place in this championship, but note that there was a difference of 8 points or more in 55% of matches in the previous season. In nearly one out of every two matches, there was a difference of more than one converted try, which is no small feat!

We are used to seeing these point differences in favour of the home team, which won 74% of matches during the 2024-2025 season. With an average of around 30 points scored by the home team (compared to 21 for the away team), betting on the home club is once again the best option for this Top 14 season.

Before betting on the Top 14, always take the time to consult the key statistics for the competition. Our summary table is there to guide you. You will find it further up on this page.

Top 14 odds: how to use them to bet with bookmakers?

Just like statistics, the odds offered by bookmakers play a major role in betting. They directly reflect the probability of a scenario and are, of course, incorporated into our algorithm's calculations.

When it comes to odds on the Top 14, there is one question you should always ask yourself before placing a bet: are the odds really worth it? In other words, does the potential payout justify the risk of placing this bet?

Let's imagine that you predict a difficult victory for Stade Toulousain against Bordeaux-Bègles, as in the last final. However, the bookmakers are offering odds of 1.30 for a Toulouse victory. Using the formula (1/odds) x 100, this corresponds to an estimated probability of victory of 76.9% for Toulouse, which is a very high percentage. If you think this estimate is too optimistic, it is better to avoid the bet: why risk £10 to win only £3?
Conversely, you are convinced that La Rochelle has what it takes to beat Castres. However, betting sites are offering odds of 2.05, which implies a probability of only 48%. If, according to your analysis, La Rochelle has a much better chance of winning, then this bet becomes particularly interesting: the potential gain is attractive compared to the actual risk you perceive.

In sports betting, and particularly for the Top 14, odds are one of the most important factors. To make the best possible rugby predictions, always keep in mind the logic of odds and probabilities. This will enable you to make the best choices for the Top 14!

Guidelines for reliable Top 14 predictions

Top 14 predictions

Our Top 14 predictions are based on the analysis of over a hundred parameters. You can therefore rely on them if you want to increase your chances of success in your bets.

However, if you prefer to carry out your own analysis, there are certain criteria that must be taken into account. Here are three essential tips for making a reliable Top 14 prediction.

1. Take home advantage into account

As our statistics show, the Top 14 is a competition where clubs win a lot at home. With nearly 8 out of 10 victories going to the home team, the championship shows a significant home advantage.

When betting on a Top 14 match, keep this in mind and favour a bet on the home club. If your analysis leads you to bet on the away team, you can play it safe by choosing to favour the handicap in their favour.

2. Do not overlook the scorers

Another point that is often underestimated by rugby bettors is the importance of kickers. In a close Top 14 match, it is often they who make the difference, thanks to their reliability with the boot. A kicker like Thomas Ramos is likely to succeed with his penalty/conversion, even if it is complicated.

If the opposing team does not have a talent like Ramos in its ranks, or if its star kicker is absent, avoid betting on them, or even bet against them. They are likely to lose a lot of points in this area.

3. Assess the teams' fatigue

Many clubs participate in a European Cup every year. For many of them, European matches are of major importance and it is not uncommon to see the best line-up sent out for a cup match.

As a result, the best players may be rested for a Top 14 match, and the players may have their minds on the next Champions Cup or Challenge Cup clash. The same is true during international periods (Six Nations, World Cup, etc.), when top teams often have to do without their best players or cope with a certain amount of fatigue. This is a factor that can greatly affect the odds of a match, so take advantage of this information for your Top 14 predictions!

Our opinion on the difficulty of Top 14 betting

Among the rugby union championships, the Top 14 is certainly one of the least difficult to predict. Information and groups are released fairly early, and the results are fairly reliable as there are relatively few surprises. With the help of the statistics on this page, you should be able to bet fairly easily on the French first division rugby league.

However, don't be fooled by certain aspects of the competition, which can be tricky. That's why it's important to remember our specialists' advice before betting on the Top 14. Finally, note that you can take advantage of numerous welcome bonuses to bet on the Top 14, so take advantage of them to start betting without risk!