Poland’s shock loss to Slovakia will go down as one of the defining results in Group E, which is now wide open after Spain’s draw with Sweden in the other game. Now Spain faces Poland, with both sides desperate for a win. Spain will be hoping for a better performance, especially in attack after missing a number of big chances against a very organised Sweden side. The chase for places in the knockout stages comes alive and a win for either side will mean the world here. The Spaniards struggled to open up a defensive Sweden side and with the same strategy is expected from Poland the former European champs will have to craft a more creative approach for this game. Spain are unbeaten in nine matches ahead of this, and in each of their last three, they have clean sheets. Of their last five matches, three have produced over 2.5 goals.
Poland had defensive midfielder Grzegorz Krychowiak sent off in the loss to Slovakia and his absence against Spain will be felt, with Luis Enrique’s side’s silkiness in midfield. Poland are not the best performers at European Championships and have never progressed past the quarter finals. They have two wins in regular time in the 12 they’ve played at the competition. Their top man, Robert Lewandowski has found it really tough at such tournaments and is rarely effective for his nation. Poland are also mostly on the losing side in matches against Spain and wouldn’t have wished for this game in a must-win situation. The pressure this game brings for Poland will be a big test of their character and it will be defined by how Lewandowski performs both as a striker and as a leader. In their last four matches, Poland have no win and are without a clean sheet while they have conceded twice in three of them. Four of their last five matches have produced over 2.5 goals.
Even without Sergio Busquets who is in isolation, Spain have been strong defensively, and the clean sheet against Sweden was their third in a row. They created chances but were wasteful in that game. Poland will be eager to go out and try to win this after the loss to Slovakia, which can be risky against a Spain side so good in transition and counter attacking football. We expect to see goals here and with both sides seeing high scoring matches, we can back this too to produce over 2.5 goals.