Southampton v Brighton Betting Tips [26 December 2022]

Struggling Southampton host Brighton at St Mary’s Stadium for this Premier League matchday 17 encounter with the teams returning after the World Cup break. The home side desperately need a win after losing their last three consecutive league matches. Southampton will be encouraged, however, after a 2-1 win over Lincoln City in the EFL Cup on Tuesday marked their first competitive match in over a month. The Saints look set for a relegation battle this season and find themselves currently sitting in 19th-place with just three wins and three draws from their 15 matches putting them on 12 points. Southampton also hold the ignominy of having the Premier League’s worst home record after winning just one of their seven home matches and earning six total points.

They face off against a Brighton side that are still well-positioned in the table after their red-hot start under former manager Graham Potter. The Seagulls sit seventh in the league table with six wins, three draws and five defeats to give them a total of 21 points. Since the appointment of new manager Roberto De Zerbi, Brighton have hit a bit of a speedbump, although they have certainly shown encouraging signs with their play. The visitors had a two match league winning streak snapped after a 2-1 loss to Aston Villa right before the World Cup break. They would return by crashing out of the EFL Cup to Charlton on penalties on Wednesday, meaning that Brighton have now only won three of their previous 10 matches across all competitions. 

The visiting Brighton come into this match as the favorites but this could end up being a tightly contested match. The Seagulls have been a solid away team this season; winning three, drawing one and losing one in their seven trips. However, their defensive efficiency drops significantly as the visiting team with only one clean sheet compared to three at home. They also see their expected goals allowed rise from 1.05. at home to 1.54 away from home. Southampton, on the other hand, see a notable boost in their attacking output on home soil with their expected goal per home match rising to 1.53 compared to 1.06 away. 

This should be an evenly contested matchup that likely sees both teams getting on the scoresheet. Southampton does appear to be a bit undervalued by the bookmakers here so there could be some value in an alternate bet by backing them on the double chance. However, with each team really struggling to keep the other team off the scoresheet this season in their respective home and away form, we see this match finishing at least 1-1. Our bet for Southampton vs Brighton is for both teams to score.