Miami Heat v Milwaukee Bucks Betting Tips [4 September 2020]

The 5th seed Miami Heat hold a commanding lead against No.1 in the Eastern Conference, Milwaukee Bucks and are threatening to eliminate Giannis Antetokounmpo and company from the play-offs at the conference semi-final stage. The Bucks have their backs to the wall and will need to do something no other team has ever done and that is overturn a 0-2 deficit against Miami in the play-offs. Miami have never lost a series having taken a 2-0 lead, with 13-0 record. These teams met three times in the regular season with Miami winning two of those games and losing the other inside the bubble back on August 6th. Miami won just three of their eight games in the bubble with their games averaging 221 points and the Heat scoring 112 on average. That has risen to 115.5 in this seires and if Miami can maintain their high-scoring form we could be looking at a 3-0 advantage in the series. However, I expect a reaction from an MVP nominee Giannis, and I feel the Bucks won't go down without a fight. 

Bucks were 2-0 up in the Eastern Conference final last year before capitulating and throwing away the lead to Toronto Raptors who went on to win the Championship so they may find some silver lining in that dark cloud. Bucks are 0-14 when trailing 0-2 in a best-of-seven play-off series but they definitely have the talent to change the past. Milwaukee are 37-7 in conference games this season and they cruised to a 4-0 lead against Orlando Magic in the first round after winning just three of their eight games in Florida to close out the regular season. Their form has dropped however, on an offensive front with their points per game average dropping from 118 from the regular season to 114 in the play-offs and just 109 in this series. 

I expect Milwaukee to improve their scoring again from their 114 tally in game two. Giannis is playing well despite a slow start averaging 28.6 points and 14.9 rebounds in the post-season so I expect him to mount a comeback here. The best value here is in backing over 223.5 points in this game and that is my tip for this match.