England travel to Italy hoping they don't return having been relegated to League B. They have only two points from their first four games and are bottom of the group and can't qualify for the finals. Italy are three points ahead of them with Germany (their final opponents next week) a further point ahead of them. A defeat in Italy will see them relegated and that's not great preparation for the World Cup later this year. Most worrying for Gareth Southgate is the fact only one goal has been scored by England in their four group matches and that has come from the penalty spot. Ivan Toney is in the squad for this match and may play some part in this fixture. England haven't been at all impressive in this group, particularly when losing 4-0 at home to Hungary but have drawn their games with Germany and Italy.
The home side have no World Cup to prepare for and may also miss out on the Nations League finals. They are a point behind Germany and two adrift of leaders Hungary who they travel to in their last match. Italy have only had one win in their four group games and that was a 2-1 home win over Hungary. They drew games against England and the Germans but their last match saw them thumped 5-2 in Germany. Two wins in their remaining games could take them into the finals, unless Germany win both their final matches. Over 90 minutes, Italy have only won two of their last nine matches. Five of those games have had under 2.5 goals scored. Go for that stat to come up in this match.